[Up First] Democrats Lead In NPR Poll, Preparations For Election Challenge, Israel Voting Begins

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released one week before the midterm elections shows Democrats holding an eight-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot

among likely voters. President Trump’s approval rating sits at 40% among likely voters, and cost of living remains the top concern for the electorate. Democrats also hold a ten-point enthusiasm

advantage, meaning their voters are more eager to show up at the polls.

Despite these promising numbers, Democrats face meaningful limits. Winning the House appears likely, but the Senate remains a genuine toss-up.

All five Senate seats in play are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, meaning Democrats are effectively playing on unfavorable terrain. They need to gain four seats to win the Senate, and polling errors or lower-than-expected turnout could easily cut into projected gains.

A key vulnerability lies in Democratic base voters. Young voters, independents who have soured on Trump, and non-white voters all report lower enthusiasm than core Republican groups. Historically, these pillar groups

turn out at lower rates in midterms, creating what analysts describe as a volatile stew of uncertainty for both parties heading into election night.

With the midterms one week away, Democrats and a network of good-governance groups are building legal and political defenses against potential efforts to disrupt or dispute the results. President Trump has offered a million-dollar bounty

for election fraud tips that lead to a conviction, while the Department of Justice has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California challenging ballot procedures. An effort to restrict mail-in voting was also pursued before being blocked through legal action.

Organizers are particularly concerned about scenarios that have no legal basis, such as a federal election emergency declaration, the deployment of troops at polling sites, or unsubstantiated claims that foreign adversaries have hacked voting machines. To counter these possibilities, groups have been pre-writing legal filings, coordinating with local election officials, and preparing rapid-response messaging to reassure voters that casting a ballot is safe and legitimate.

A broader pattern underlies these preparations. Trump has stoked the flames

of false election conspiracies repeatedly since 2020, a pattern that culminated in the January 6 Capitol attack. Polling shows Republicans are 20 points less likely than Democrats to say their candidate should accept election results — a gap that could fuel significant political turmoil if close races are contested.

Israelis went to the polls in a closely fought election that could determine the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The vote is the first national election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, and the war in Gaza has dominated the political debate. Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad flew home specifically to cast their ballots,

underscoring the intensity of feeling surrounding the contest.

Netanyahu faces serious legal and political headwinds. He has been on trial for corruption charges and presided over the security failures that preceded October 7. Opponents argue that the war and his leadership style have left Israel more isolated internationally. His supporters, however, credit him with prosecuting a vigorous military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah, and his coalition

of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remains a formidable force.

The outcome hinges on whether a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc can assemble enough seats to form an alternative government. Israeli electoral politics are notoriously fragmented, with many small parties competing for seats, meaning the post-election coalition negotiations could be prolonged and contentious.

Regardless of who forms the next government, the war’s trajectory and the fate of the remaining hostages in Gaza are expected to define Israel’s political agenda for months to come.