[Up First] New Economic Pressure On Iran, Iran Warns Neighbors, Tariff War With Canada

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to unveil a new package of economic pressure measures against Iran, part of what the Trump administration calls “Economic D-Day.” The plan targets not only Iran directly but also third-party countries and entities that provide Iran with financial lifelines — most notably China and, until recently, the United Arab Emirates, which has now cut off all trade with Iran.

Analysts are skeptical that further sanctions will succeed. A former U.S. diplomat and nuclear negotiator argues that after nearly five decades of restrictions, all the low-hanging fruit has already been picked — meaning there are few effective new measures left. He also challenges the core assumption behind sanctions, warning that immiserating ordinary Iranians has not forced the regime to compromise and is unlikely to do so now. If anything, economic warfare has strengthened hard-liners inside the government.

Iran’s newly appointed security chief, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, issued a stark warning to Gulf states over the weekend: any country that cooperates with U.S. economic restrictions will be treated as an enemy. Iran has already carried out drone and missile strikes on U.S. installations and Gulf facilities in countries including Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia over the past six months, and those attacks have caused fatalities.

The most alarming threat was Iran’s warning that it could attack oil tankers using alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that, in its words, “not even a single drop of oil” leaves the region. Gulf states have spent billions expanding pipelines and other infrastructure to circumvent the Iranian-blockaded strait. If Iran acts on this threat, global oil supplies could face a seismic disruption. Meanwhile, Iran’s currency hit a record low of two million rials to the dollar on Monday morning, underscoring the economic toll on ordinary citizens.

Trade tensions between the United States and Canada boiled over this weekend after Washington imposed a sweeping 50% tariff on Canadian goods following the collapse of bilateral negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded defiantly, pledging to match U.S. tariffs “dollar for dollar” in retaliation.

The dispute marks a sharp escalation in what had already been a strained relationship between the two neighboring allies. The breakdown in talks and the imposition of tariffs at this scale risk significant economic harm on both sides, given the deep integration of the U.S.–Canada trade relationship, and signals that Washington is prepared to apply the same aggressive economic tactics it uses against adversaries to its closest partners as well.